Upset City!

I suppose they are not really major upsets when its 2 and 3 seeds getting wins, but still.

Missouri over Connecticut
- I predicted this in my brackets before the tournament even started...can't turn back now.

Villanova over Pittsburgh
- It seems like Pitt is due to play a full game. Messing around and sucking for the first 35 minutes won't work against 'Nova...this is me predicting that's what happens.

Louisville over Michigan State
- I can't bring myself to pick this 1 seed to go down.

Oklahoma over UNC
- Suck it, Hansbrough.

Elite 8 Picks

Two days in one!

Connecticut over Missouri
- Sure, Missouri looked pretty good in beating Memphis. But the thing is, Memphis isn't very good.

Pittsburgh over Villanova
- Pitt will play like garbage for 35 minutes, then wake up just in time for Levance Fields to hit a rainbow 3-pointer for the win.

Louisville over Michigan State
- Make it three for the Big East.

Syracuse over ...

oh, right.

North Carolina over Oklahoma
- Just because.

'Cuse Gameday Notes

OKLAHOMA HISTORY

Syracuse leads the all time series with Oklahoma 2-1.

Syracuse's 2003 win over Oklahoma in the tournament was the only post-season game between the teams.

'Cuse has never played @ Oklahoma.

Game Results:
- 12/23/1948...Syracuse 55 Oklahoma 49 (Leading scorer: Ed Stickel.)
- 1/7/1984...Oklahoma 98 Syracuse 91 (Sooners led by Wayman Tisdale)
- 3/30/2003...Syracuse 63 Oklahoma 47 (duh.)

SWEET 16 HISTORY

Results accumulated with the help of OrangeHoops and, of course, Wikipedia.

Syracuse's all-time Sweet 16 record: 7-10

1957: def. Lafayette 75-71
1966: def. Davidson 94-78
1973: lost to Maryland 91-75
1975: def. North Carolina 78-76
1977: lost to Charlotte 81-59 (ouch)
1979: lost to Penn 84-76
1980: lost to Iowa 88-77
1984: lost to Virginia 63-55
1987: def. Florida 87-81
1989: def. Missouri 83-80
1990: lost to Minnesota 82-75
1994: lost to Missouri 98-88
1996: def. Georgia 83-81
1998: lost to Duke 80-67
2000: lost to Michigan State 75-58
2003: def. Auburn 79-78
2004: lost to Alabama 80-71

Oklahoma's all-time Sweet 16 record: 4-4

1979: lost to Indiana State 93-72
1985: def. Louisiana Tech 86-84
1987: lost to Iowa 93-91
1988: def. Louisville 108-98
1989: lost to Virginia 86-80
1999: lost to Michigan State 54-46
2002: def. Arizona 88-67
2003: def. Butler 65-54

Sweet Picks

IT'S CUSE DAY!

Louisville over Arizona
- Big East rules.

Syracuse over Oklahoma
- Screw Blake Griffin.

Kansas over Michigan State
- I have been an epic fail when it comes to disagreeing with Moten in this tournament. That changes today!

UNC over Gonzaga
- What fun would it be for Syracuse to get to the Final Four if they don't even get to beat North Carolina on the way? (It would be perfectly fine, but the Tar Heels are winning this game.)

Sweet 16, Day 2.

Current Standings:

Poetry in Moten: 44-8
K-Gun: 40-12

Louisville over Arizona
- Arizona is clearly more talented than your average 12-seed, but that's not going to cut it here. The Big East roll continues.

Syracuse over Oklahoma
- My brain is is torn over who will actually win this game, so I decided to let my heart do the picking.

Michigan State over Kansas
- My original bracket had Michigan State beating West Virginia in this game. To be honest, now that the opponent is Kansas, I'm tempted to pick against the Spartans, but I'm choosing to honor the original bracket.

North Carolina over Gonzaga
- Eventually, Gonzaga will have its Final Four run. I just don't think they can beat North Carolina.

Sweet 16, Day 1: Predictions.

Records through two rounds:

Poetry in Moten: 40-8
K-Gun: 36-12

The picks:

Connecticut over Purdue
- Because UConn is playing as well as anybody right now (even if the Huskies aren't following all the rules).

Pittsburgh over Xavier
- Because it would be quite foolish of me to pick my National Champion to lose in the Sweet 16.

Missouri over Memphis
- Count me among the people who think Memphis is a tad overrated.

Villanova over Duke
- Easiest pick of the day.

Day 3 Predictions

I'll be posting the predictions for both myself and Poetry in Moten for today.

Records thru 2 days:

Poetry in Moten 24-8
K-Gun 22-10

I had one of the worst days of picking of all time yesterday, it was a pretty horrible experience. Calling the Cleveland State over Wake Forest upset was pretty excellent, though. I think it was okay for Syracuse to lose to them now.

- UCLA v. Villanova
K-Gun Pick: 'Nova
Moten Pick: 'Nova
...I wonder how UCLA feels about playing on Villanova's home court for this game.

- Maryland v. Memphis
K-Gun Pick: Memphis
Moten Pick: Memphis
...and the ACC is down to 2. They've really proven how awesome their conference is with that 3-4 first round record.

- Texas A&M v. Connecticut
K-Gun Pick: UConn
Moten Pick: UConn
...the Big East rolls on!

- Purdue v. Washington
K-Gun Pick: Washington
Moten Pick: Purdue
...finally we disagree on something. This probably means Purdue is going to win, because apparently my picks are the pick of death to these teams.

- LSU v. North Carolina
K-Gun Pick: UNC
Moten Pick: UNC
...but it would be awesome if UNC lost to help clear Syracuse's path to the Final Four.

- Michigan v. Oklahoma
K-Gun Pick: OU
Moten Pick: OU
...see: LSU v. North Carolina; insert "OU" for "UNC"

- Western Kentucky v. Gonzaga
K-Gun Pick: Gonzaga
Moten Pick: Gonzaga
...I have nothing to say about this game.

- Texas v. Duke
K-Gun Pick: Duke
Moten Pick: Duke
...good thing there are only 8 games today, because I have no more commentary to make.

NCAA Tournament Day 2 Predictions.

I'm drinking Mountain Dew LiveWire instead of regular Dew today in honor of the glory that will commence around noon.

Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin
- I couldn't possibly be more nervous about this one.

Tennessee over Oklahoma State
- At first, I was going to give this one to Tennessee because they also wear orange, but so does Oklahoma State. Then I was going to give it to Tennessee because its football coach is insane, but Oklahoma State's football coach is also insane. So in the end, I gave it to Tennessee because Tennessee is a better team.

Marquette over Utah State
- Anyone who picks against a Big East team in Round 1 is a fool.

Kansas over North Dakota State
- People on television seem to love North Dakota State. I'm thinking there's a reason the Bison are seeded 14th.

Arizona State over Temple
- Because Christmas in March is just fucking annoying.

Pittsburgh over East Tennessee State
- This pick is working under the assumption that all of Pitt's players manage to wake up and make their way to the arena today.

West Virginia over Dayton
- See "Marquette over Utah State."

Missouri over Cornell
- I've seen Cornell play in person. The only way the Big Red win is if they shoot 60% from 3-point range.

Utah over Arizona
- Why do I have to keep providing reasoning for these? My fingers are tired of typing.

Louisville over Morehead State
- Because Louisville is good and Morehead State is not.

USC over Boston College
- I have no good reason for this selection other than Boston College is stupid.

Xavier over Portland State
- This is taking fucking forever.

Wake Forest over Cleveland State
- No 400-foot buzzer beaters here.

Siena over Ohio State
- The most shocking part of Siena's upset over fourth-seed Vanderbilt last year? Somehow Vanderbilt got a 4-seed.

Michigan State over Robert Morris
- Michigan State against one dude? Seriously? They're only bringing one guy? Robert and Stephen F. might have a pretty sweet 2-on-2 team, but it's just not going to work here.

Florida State over Wisconsin
- I heard a stat that a Bo Ryan-coached Wisconsin team has never won an NCAA Tournament game against a team seeded eighth or better. That's enough for me.

Day 2. Predicted.

Standings Thru Day 1:

K-Gun 13-3
Poetry in Moten 13-3

We have proven to be equals through one day, but there are still 9 days of tournament basketball left for me to prove that I am better at guessing the outcome of basketball games.

On to predictions...

SYRACUSE over Stephen F. Austin
- One down, 5 to go. Chyeah.

Tennessee over Oklahoma State
- Everything about these teams would suggest that OK St would be the pick, so obviously I would go the other direction.

Utah State over Marquette
- The other 6 Big East teams will be doing fantastic in this tournament. Marquette will not.

Kansas over North Dakota State
- I wonder if ND State will keep it close for most of the game, get people excited, then end up letting the game turn into a blowout late.

Temple over Arizona State
- The Owls scare the shit out of me as a second round opponent for Syracuse.

Pittsburgh over East Tennessee State
- Pittsburgh won't have a problem winning. The real battle will be to escape with all ACLs intact.

West Virginia over Dayton
- There's no way two Big East teams will get upset in the same afternoon.

Missouri over Cornell
- A Cornell win here would be awesome. Well, awesome if I ignore the fact that one of my predicted Final Four teams would already be eliminated.

Utah over Arizona
- Arizona is fully capable of beating many teams in this tournament. That doesn't mean they'll beat any, but still.

Louisville over Morehead State
- Fun fact: Morehead State plays its home games in the Johnson Arena.

Boston College over USC
- My ACC/Big East over non-ACC/Big East in a toss up game theory went 1-1 yesterday. I will be improving that record here.

Xavier over Portland State
- I was tempted to pick an upset here, but decided against it when I didn't have any real reason for it other than just wanting to be tricky.

Cleveland State over Wake Forest
- The only reason for this is because it will make me feel better for Syracuse losing to them in December. It has nothing to do with logic.

Siena over Ohio State
- Two Big Ten teams are already gone. Let's get rid of another one!

Michigan State over Robert Morris
- Two institutions of higher education, three elementary schools, two towns, a number of Navy and Coast Guard ships, and an Inn have all been named after this guy Robert Morris. None of that will help one the University upset Michigan State, but still.

Florida State over Wisconsin
- If I'm right about all my Big Ten picks on this day, four of seven Big Ten teams will be be gone after Round 1. Nice job, Big Ten.

The Cuse is in the house!

This is the first half of a two-part YouTube series titled "Remembering Past Syracuse Glory in the NCAA Tournament."

A Better Set of Day 1 NCAA Tournament Picks.

My Big East Tournament predictions were a complete disaster, and I hope these selections are at least slightly less horrible.

LSU over Butler
- To hell with mid-majors.

Memphis over Cal State Northridge
- Fun Fact: Cal State Northridge used to be known as San Fernando Valley State College. Another Fun Fact: California State University of Northridge at San Fernando Valley State College is still no good at basketball.

BYU over Texas A&M
- The statement "to hell with mid-majors" does not apply to mormon schools.

Purdue over Northern Iowa
- I prefer Northern Iowa when it is abbreviated as "No. Iowa." As in, nobody needs Iowa, go away.

North Carolina over Radford
- There's nothing rad about driving a Ford.

Cal over Maryland
- When in doubt, don't pick the team that lost to Morgan State this year.

UConn over Chattanooga
- Fun Fact: In a previous life, I covered Chattanooga's point guard, Keyron Sheard. Great dude, great player, but not great enough to beat the Huskies.

Washington over Mississippi State
- Four signs your conference sucks: A team finishes the regular season with a 9-7 mark in your league. They win the conference tournament. They enter postseason play with 23 wins. And they get a 13 seed.

Texas over Minnesota
- Minnesota's court hovers above the first few rows of seats, like a stage. Sounds fun. Now get the fuck out of the tournament.

Michigan over Clemson
- Clemson's epic collapse, Part 346, continues.

Villanova over American
- Villanova hates America. Deport Scottie Reynolds.

Gonzaga over Akron
- Because I'm still upset at Akron for ruining the dream of two SUNY schools in the same NCAA Tournament.

Duke over Binghamton
- Scrappy white players versus problem players who have been featured for their off-court misdeeds. I'll defy all logic by taking the white players.

Oklahoma over Morgan State
- Because Oklahoma is better than Maryland.

UCLA over VCU
- Because when every talking head on ESPN predicts the upset, you know it's not going to happen.

Illinois over Western Kentucky
- See explanation for "UCLA over VCU."

NCAA Tourney Day 1 Picks

My predictions for today's games, in order of when they are supposed to begin:

LSU over Butler
- As much as I think the SEC sucks, they still have some big name schools there, and LSU just won their regular season title.

Memphis over Cal State Northridge
- I think Memphis is highly overrated, but that doesn't mean I'm stupid enough to think they'll fall to a 15.

BYU over Texas A&M
- I went against this two picks ago, but in general I'm weary about lower seeded BCS schools.

Purdue over Northern Iowa
- Although Northern Iowa does have Jesus on their side...

UNC over Radford
- I hope this game is not on my TV today, I've had about enough of Ty Lawson's toe.

Maryland over California
- Whenever I am faced with a toss up between high majors, I'll usually pick the one that is ACC or Big East affiliated.

UConn over Chattanooga
- I have nothing to say about this game.

Washington over Mississippi State
- You had a nice run, Bulldogs.

Texas over Minnesota
- I'm wondering if I should regret this choice, because it seems like picking Texas is a little too obvious.

Clemson over Michigan
- See: Maryland over California

Villanova over American
- Who else to better handle a scrappy underdog than a scrappy favorite? So scrappy, that 'Nova.

Gonzaga over Akron
- I wonder if Gonzaga will ever make a Final Four. (Doubtful this year.)

Duke over Binghamton
- I can't describe how happy I would be if Duke lost to a 15 seed.

Oklahoma over Morgan State
- Although an OTL feature on Morgan State's coach convinced me they have a chance.

VCU over UCLA
- Mostly because I want the theory that UCLA really sucks to hold true.

Western Kentucky over Illinois
- Probably the most popular 12 over 5. Maybe it's because Western Kentucky beat the best team in the nation. Maybe it's because Illinois scored 33 points in a game this season.

So, How'd I Do?

Sunday afternoon, I posted my final bracket projection. All told, I think the results were fairly decent, especially since the lone criteria I used for seeding was the general knowledge and biases that already existed in my head.

• Correctly projected 64 of the 65 teams in the field (damn you, Arizona!)
• Projected 26 teams on their exact seed lines
• 33 teams were within one seed of the actual bracket
• 5 teams were within two seeds of the actual bracket

I was at my best for the 1 and 16 seeds, correctly projecting eight of the nine teams correctly. The numbers would have been much better, but I fell apart in the 9-13 range.

Selection Sunday is Here (Finally).

Here's my final bracket projection. I'll admit that it's eerily similar to Joe Lunardi's latest, but you'll just have to believe that I wasn't copying him. Great (and/or idiotic) minds think alike.

AUTO BIDS (31): Duke, Binghamton, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Temple, Louisville, Portland State, Radford, Purdue, Missouri, Cal State Northridge, VCU, Memphis, Cleveland State, Siena, Akron, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Utah, Robert Morris, Morehead State, USC, American, Mississippi State, Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

LOCKS (29): Butler, BYU, LSU, Tennessee, Xavier, Dayton, Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette, Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State.

BUBBLE (5): Michigan, Maryland, Creighton, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Penn State, Saint Mary's, Arizona, San Diego State.

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Providence, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico.

SEEDS:

1: North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

2: Memphis, Duke, Kansas, Michigan State

3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Villanova, Missouri

4: Washington, Syracuse, Florida State, Purdue

5: Xavier, UCLA, Gonzaga, Arizona State

6: Illinois, Clemson, West Virginia, Marquette

7: LSU, Tennessee, California, Utah

8: BYU, Ohio State, Butler, Texas

9: Oklahoma State, Boston College, USC, Texas A&M

10: Siena, Dayton, Utah State, Michigan

11: VCU, Creighton, Maryland, Wisconsin

12: Cleveland State, Temple, Minnesota, Mississippi State

13: Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky, North Dakota State, Akron

14: Binghamton, American, Robert Morris, Stephen F. Austin

15: Portland State, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Cal State Northridge

16: Chattanooga, Morgan State, Alabama State, Morehead State, Radford

Projecting the Field (Part II)

Different kind of bracket, but a bracket nonetheless.

Take Two. This time, it's seeded! Hopefully I'll have a chance to update once more before Selection Sunday.

1: North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

2: Memphis, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Kansas

3: Washington, Wake Forest, Duke, Villanova

4: Syracuse, Missouri, Florida State, Xavier

5: Illinois, Purdue, UCLA, Clemson

6: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Marquette, Arizona State

7: Utah, BYU, Cal, LSU

8: Butler, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma State

9: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Boston College

10: Siena, Penn State, Dayton, Michigan

11: VCU, Creighton, San Diego State, Minnesota

12: Utah State, Cleveland State, New Mexico, Florida

13: Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky, Bowling Green, North Dakota State

14: Binghamton, American, Robert Morris, Portland State

15: Cornell, Stephen F. Austin, East Tennessee State, Cal State Northridge

16: Chattanooga, Morgan State, Alabama State, Morehead State, Radford

Last Few Teams Out: Maryland, Providence, Arizona, Auburn

Other Teams Considered: Rhode Island, Temple, Miami, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, UNLV, USC, South Carolina, Saint Mary's, Davidson

Projecting the Field.

Below you'll find a running list of teams that have already earned automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament, as well as the projected winners of the other one-big leagues, bubble teams, and other schools that fall into the "lock" category. Expect this post to be repeated and updated as the week goes on.

To make things simpler, the projected one-bid winners are the current top seeds in those conferences. In some cases (Memphis, for example), a team could get in without winning its conference tournament.

IN
1) East Tennessee State - Atlantic Sun
2) Radford - Big South
3) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley
4) Morehead State - Ohio Valley
5) Cornell - Ivy

PROJECTED ONE-BID WINNERS
6) Binghamton - America East
7) Weber State - Big Sky
8) Cal State Northridge - Big West
9) Virginia Commonwealth - Colonial
10) Memphis - Conference USA
11) Butler - Horizon
12) Siena - Metro Atlantic
13) Bowling Green - Mid-American
14) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern
15) Robert Morris - Northeast
16) American - Patriot
17) Chattanooga - Southern
18) Stephen F. Austin - Southland
19) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic
20) North Dakota State - Summit
21) Western Kentucky - Sun Belt
22) Utah State - Western Athletic

That leaves 43 spots left to be broken up amongst nine conferences (Atlantic Coast, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-10, Mountain West, West Coast). Let's get to it.

LOCK
23) North Carolina
24) Duke
25) Wake Forest
26) Clemson
27) Florida State
28) Xavier
29) Kansas
30) Oklahoma
31) Missouri
32) Louisville
33) Pittsburgh
34) Connecticut
35) Villanova
36) Marquette
37) Syracuse
38) West Virginia
39) Michigan State
40) Illinois
41) Purdue
42) Brigham Young
43) Utah
44) Washington
45) UCLA
46) Arizona State
47) California
48) Gonzaga
49) LSU

That leaves 16 spots remaining for the following 30 teams:

Boston College
Miami
Maryland
Virginia Tech
Dayton
Rhode Island
Temple
Texas A&M
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas
Providence
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Northwestern
Creighton
New Mexico
San Diego State
UNLV
Arizona
Southern Cal
Saint Mary's
South Carolina
Tennessee
Auburn
Florida
Davidson

All told, I was probably a little too strict in handing out "lock" status earlier. So, let's toss in Boston College (50), Dayton (51), Texas (52), Tennessee (53), Texas A&M (54), Oklahoma State (55), South Carolina (56), Ohio State (57), and Wisconsin (58).

Now we're down to 21 teams battling for seven spots. For the sake of making life easier, let's eliminate a few of the stragglers. Finish 7-9 in the ACC? See ya later, Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Only one Top 50 win? Later, Temple. RPI over 70? Have fun in the NIT, Kansas State, Providence, and Northwestern.

14 Teams, 7 Spots. To the tale of the tape we go!

• Minnesota: RPI 41, SOS 42, 5-7 vs. Top 50, 5-7 in Last 12
• Michigan: RPI 42, SOS 10, 6-9 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
• Penn State: RPI 61, SOS 95, 6-8 vs. Top 50, 7-5 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
  
• Creighton: RPI 39, SOS 105, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 11-1 in Last 12, two sub-151 losses
  
• New Mexico: RPI 57, SOS 84, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 10-2 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
  
• San Diego State: RPI 44, SOS 61, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
  
• UNLV: RPI 55, SOS 87, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 7-5 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
  
• Arizona: RPI 52, SOS 29, 5-8 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
  
• Southern Cal: RPI 58, SOS 28, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
  
• Saint Mary's: RPI 50, SOS 179, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
  
• Florida: RPI 49, SOS 92, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, one sub-151 loss
• Auburn: RPI 63, SOS 69, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 9-3 in Last 12, one sub-151 loss
  
• Rhode Island: RPI 63, SOS 142, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 10-2 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
• Davidson: RPI 68, SOS 173, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 9-3 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
  

That is a massive clusterfuck of information. And it's not even the half of it. You'll just have to trust me that I weighed factors other than what is printed above. Here's the final verdict (for now):

LAST SEVEN IN: UNLV (59), Creighton (60), Michigan (61), Minnesota (62), Penn State (63), San Diego State (64), and New Mexico (65).

FIRST SIX OUT: Rhode Island, Southern Cal, Saint Mary's, Auburn, Florida, Davidson, and Arizona.

I'm exhausted.