To make things simpler, the projected one-bid winners are the current top seeds in those conferences. In some cases (Memphis, for example), a team could get in without winning its conference tournament.
IN
1) East Tennessee State - Atlantic Sun
2) Radford - Big South
3) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley
4) Morehead State - Ohio Valley
5) Cornell - Ivy
PROJECTED ONE-BID WINNERS
6) Binghamton - America East
7) Weber State - Big Sky
8) Cal State Northridge - Big West
9) Virginia Commonwealth - Colonial
10) Memphis - Conference USA
11) Butler - Horizon
12) Siena - Metro Atlantic
13) Bowling Green - Mid-American
14) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern
15) Robert Morris - Northeast
16) American - Patriot
17) Chattanooga - Southern
18) Stephen F. Austin - Southland
19) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic
20) North Dakota State - Summit
21) Western Kentucky - Sun Belt
22) Utah State - Western Athletic
That leaves 43 spots left to be broken up amongst nine conferences (Atlantic Coast, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-10, Mountain West, West Coast). Let's get to it.
LOCK
23) North Carolina
24) Duke
25) Wake Forest
26) Clemson
27) Florida State
28) Xavier
29) Kansas
30) Oklahoma
31) Missouri
32) Louisville
33) Pittsburgh
34) Connecticut
35) Villanova
36) Marquette
37) Syracuse
38) West Virginia
39) Michigan State
40) Illinois
41) Purdue
42) Brigham Young
43) Utah
44) Washington
45) UCLA
46) Arizona State
47) California
48) Gonzaga
49) LSU
That leaves 16 spots remaining for the following 30 teams:
Boston College
Miami
Maryland
Virginia Tech
Dayton
Rhode Island
Temple
Texas A&M
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas
Providence
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Northwestern
Creighton
New Mexico
San Diego State
UNLV
Arizona
Southern Cal
Saint Mary's
South Carolina
Tennessee
Auburn
Florida
Davidson
All told, I was probably a little too strict in handing out "lock" status earlier. So, let's toss in Boston College (50), Dayton (51), Texas (52), Tennessee (53), Texas A&M (54), Oklahoma State (55), South Carolina (56), Ohio State (57), and Wisconsin (58).
Now we're down to 21 teams battling for seven spots. For the sake of making life easier, let's eliminate a few of the stragglers. Finish 7-9 in the ACC? See ya later, Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Only one Top 50 win? Later, Temple. RPI over 70? Have fun in the NIT, Kansas State, Providence, and Northwestern.
14 Teams, 7 Spots. To the tale of the tape we go!
- Minnesota: RPI 41, SOS 42, 5-7 vs. Top 50, 5-7 in Last 12
- Michigan: RPI 42, SOS 10, 6-9 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
- Penn State: RPI 61, SOS 95, 6-8 vs. Top 50, 7-5 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
- Creighton: RPI 39, SOS 105, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 11-1 in Last 12, two sub-151 losses
- New Mexico: RPI 57, SOS 84, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 10-2 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
- San Diego State: RPI 44, SOS 61, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
- UNLV: RPI 55, SOS 87, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 7-5 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
- Arizona: RPI 52, SOS 29, 5-8 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, one sub-100 loss
- Southern Cal: RPI 58, SOS 28, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
- Saint Mary's: RPI 50, SOS 179, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 8-4 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
- Florida: RPI 49, SOS 92, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-6 in Last 12, one sub-151 loss
- Auburn: RPI 63, SOS 69, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 9-3 in Last 12, one sub-151 loss
- Rhode Island: RPI 63, SOS 142, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 10-2 in Last 12, three sub-100 losses
- Davidson: RPI 68, SOS 173, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 9-3 in Last 12, two sub-100 losses
LAST SEVEN IN: UNLV (59), Creighton (60), Michigan (61), Minnesota (62), Penn State (63), San Diego State (64), and New Mexico (65).
FIRST SIX OUT: Rhode Island, Southern Cal, Saint Mary's, Auburn, Florida, Davidson, and Arizona.
I'm exhausted.
excellent work.
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